Science and Policy
BALTIC GAS is a research project in the BONUS-169 Joint Baltic Sea Research Programme and will accordingly contribute to the development of a scientific basis for sustainable use and protection of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Thus BALTIC GAS will further add to facilitate the implementation of ecosystem-based management in the Baltic Sea.
The scientific themes and key research issues of the Joint Baltic Sea Research Programme are presented in BONUS publication No. 5: BONUS-169 Science Plan and Implementation Strategy. Of the eight Themes addressed in the Science Plan, BALTIC GAS focuses on the following themes:
Theme 1: Linking science and policy
The project will improve scientific knowledge about a fundamental ecosystem property, hidden in the seabed, which has potential detrimental impact in the future but for which the understanding and awareness is still poor. The mining and synthesis of seismo-acoustic data together with database management and GIS-based maps will make new as well as already existing information on gas distribution and methane flux available in a synthesised form. The predictive modelling of future gas accumulation and methane emission as a result of climate change and eutrophication will provide a tool for environmental authorities to make appropriate risk assessments and informed management plans.
Theme 2: Understanding climate change and geophysical forcing
The future development of gassy sediments as a result of climate change and eutrophication has not been evaluated. Data are scarce and uncoordinated and potential thresholds for gas accumulation and gas migration in the seabed are not understood. Likely future scenarios include increased frequency and area of gas ebullition resulting in more frequent escape of toxic sulphide and enhanced methane emission to water and atmosphere.
A positive feed-back between global warming and enhanced methane emission to the atmosphere is well documented by abrupt warming events throughout the last glaciation but the feed-back mechanisms are still under debate. The project will contribute to the understanding of the role of climate change on the sub-seafloor carbon cycle.
Theme 3: Combatting eutrophication
Detection of gas accumulation in the seabed and prediction of its future potential for release provide will useful new knowledge for sustainable ecosystem management. Hence, BALTIC GAS addresses how critical it is to limit eutrophication today in order to prevent a deterioration of the ecosystem due to enhanced gas accumulation and emission which may trigger only on a 100-year time scale.
Theme 7: Integrating ecosystem and society
An integrated ecosystem approach to Baltic Sea management requires knowledge of the key processes in the ecosystem, how they are controlled, and how they are perturbed by human activities. BALTIC GAS addresses such a key process which is today poorly constrained but which may accelerate in the future as a result of climate change and continued eutrophication.